Crunching The Numbers: Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas

2 races deep and 2 different winners have been crowned. Shall we be seeing a third in a few days time? We shall see what the numbers say!

This weekend’s race is the Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedways. The track is a 1.5 mile long D-shaped oval, Intermediate track. The 4 turns have a nice banking at 20°, while the straightaways have a mild 9° banking. These specs are very similar to what we saw this past weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway so one could expect a very similar race to what we just saw.

Las Vegas Track Stats

The scheduled distance for the race is 267 laps/400.5 miles. Only 2 races have gone into over time, with the latest back in 2009. The past 3 years have provided the quickest races that Vegas has seen. It appears that while the 2015 race was slower than the average, the final caution set up a long green flag run to the end and with that, fewer drivers were on the lead lap. However, we also saw more lead changes and cautions. With Atlanta and Las Vegas being very similar, we may see even fewer cautions than the average just like we did last weekend.


hi-res-ddc4ded069cc793d6a1c069a8b207428_crop_north2015 Kobalt Tools 400 Top 5

Driver Finish Start
Kevin Harvick 1 18
Martin Truex Jr. 2 8
Ryan Newman 3 7
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 4 4
Denny Hamlin 5 19

 

2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, Las Vegas

Past Kobalt Tools 400 Pole Sitters

Year Driver Team Finish
2004 Kasey Kahne Evernham Motorsports 2
2005 Ryan Newman Team Penske 9
2006 Greg Biffle Roush Fenway 8
2007 Kasey Kahne Evernham Motorsports 35
2008 Kyle Busch Joe Gibbs Racing 11
2009 Kyle Busch Joe Gibbs Racing 1
2010 Kurt Busch Team Penske 35
2011 Matt Kenseth Roush Fenway Racing 11
2012 Kasey Kahne Hendrick Motorsports 19
2013 Brad Keselowski Team Penske 3
2014 Joey Logano Team Penske 4
2015 Jeff Gordon Hendrick Motorsports 18

 

Past Kobalt (Tools) 400 Winners:

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 10.9
    • Matt Kenseth won in 2004 from starting P25, which is the furthest back a race winner has started
  • Since 2004, 1 pole winner has gone on to win the race
    • Kyle Busch back in 2009
  • 41.7% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 58.3% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
    • 2 winners have come from starting P2, P3, and P18 since 2004
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 75.7 laps (28.4% of the scheduled 267 lap race)
  • There have been 7 different race winners from 5 different teams since 2004
  • Pole winners have an average finish of 13, leading an average of 22.7 laps (8.5% of the scheduled 267 lap race)

 

Coming off of the 2nd race in the season, Chevrolet and Toyota (Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing respectively) have found victory lane. Martin Truex Jr. is bound to break into Victory Lane very soon as he leads his team with the best average (team) finish; Joe Gibbs Racing leads the way in best finish for a multi-car organization. We also saw this past weekend, with qualifying back to it’s regular ways, that Team Penske surprisingly did not have the speed that they had in 2015. Could we see a changing of the guard entirely this season when it comes to qualifying? Only time will tell!

Las Vegas Manufacturer Stats

Las Vegas Team Stats

 

Now, who is fast? Do you think the odds favor a driver or team?

Las Vegas Predictions

Surprised to see some JGR drivers up top? Well, you shouldn’t be. What about ol Jimmie Johnson? Not a shocker there either. With another fast, intermediate track upon us, will the same kind of racing come into play; long green flag runs with minimal cautions? Or will Vegas bring its unpredictability to the track and cause mass chaos? Turn in on Sunday afternoon to find out!

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Ashley Hobbs

I was born on the 9th of March in a year which you need not know. I was born and raised in the great state of New Jersey, but I now reside in Florida. Here is a bit about myself:

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I hope you enjoy my segment, Crunching the Numbers, and getting insights into each weekend's NASCAR race!

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