Crunching The Numbers: Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond

Richmond International Raceway, the site of the next (short track) race and the site of the race that finalized the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. This short track likes to think it is an intermediate track. The long backstretch allows for speed to grow and passing to be made. Entering turns 1 and 3 is where a history or carnage takes place so keep an eye for dive bombs to not pan out so nicely for some drivers on Sunday.

RIR

RIR Track Specs

  • Track Length: 0.75 Miles
    • Scheduled Laps: 400 (300 miles)
  • Track Configuration: D-Shaped Oval
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 14°
  • Frontstretch
    • Banking: 8°
    • Length: 860 feet
  • Backstretch
    • Banking: 2°
    • Length: 1,290 feet

Trends of the Race

Richmond 1 Track Stats

*Data back to 2004*

In the last 5 races at Richmond in the Spring, we have seen:

  • 1 race go into over time
  • Margin of Victory 0.9886 seconds
  • 19 drivers on the lead lap
  • 8 cautions
    • Lap 51 for the first caution
    • Lap 368 for the final caution (setting up a longer run to the finish)

RICHMOND, VA - APRIL 26: Kurt Busch, driver of the #41 Haas Automation Chevrolet, celebrates in Victory Lane after winning the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway on April 26, 2015 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

2015 Toyota Owners 400 Top 5 – 4/26/15

Driver Finish Start
Kurt Busch 1 3
Kevin Harvick 2 5
Jimmie Johnson 3 36
Jamie McMurray 4 9
Joey Logano 5 1

 

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2015 Federated Auto Parts 400 – 9/12/15

Driver Finish Start
Matt Kenseth 1 2
Kyle Busch 2 4
Joey Logano 3 1
Aric Almirola 4 24
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 5 29

Kurt Busch and Matt Kenseth found victory at Richmond last year and both won the race in dominating fashion. Joey Logano won both poles and ended up with top 5 finishes in both races. Could this be the year Logano adds his name to the list of winners from the pole? Or will he settle for another pole and watch someone else sneak victory away?

Past Toyota Owners 400 Pole Sitters
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Year Driver Team Finish
2004 Brian Vickers Hendrick Motorsports 8
2005 Kasey Kahne Evernham Motorsports 1
2006 Greg Biffle Joe Gibbs Racing 1
2007 Jeff Gordon Hendrick Motorsports 4
2008 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing 24
2009 Brian Vickers Red Bull Racing 15
2010 Kyle Busch Joe Gibbs Racing 1
2011 Juan Pablo Montoya Eanrhardt Ganassi Racing 29
2012 Mark Martin Michael Waltrip Racing 8
2013 Matt Kenseth Joe Gibbs Racing 7
2014 Kyle Larson Chip Ganassi Racing 16
2015 Joey Logano Team Penske 5
  • Pole winners have an average finish of 9.9
  • Average laps lead: 113.2 laps
    • 28.3% of the scheduled 400 lap race

Past Toyota Owners 400 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 9.8
    • Clint Bowyer won in 2008 from starting P31, which is the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 25% of pole winners have gone on to win the race
    • Kasey Kahne: 2005
    • Greg Biffle: 2006
    • Kyle Busch: 2010
  • 58.3% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
    • 42.9% of winners who started in the top 5 started from the pole
  • 58.3% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 117.9 laps (29.5% of the scheduled 400 lap race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Kevin Harvick led 3 laps (0.75% of the scheduled 400 lap race) in 2013
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Kurt Busch led 291 laps (72.75% of the race) in 2015
  • There have been 9 different race winners from 8 different teams since 2004
    • Kyle Busch is leader of multiple wins with 4 in consecutive years from 2009-2012

Richmond 1 Team Stats

Richmond 1 Manufacturers

We see here that Joe Gibbs Racing is not only the dominate team this year, and helping lead the Toyota camp with the best stats across the board, but they are the dominate team when it comes to Richmond International Raceway. Be in the visit in the Spring or Fall, Joe Gibbs Racing has this track figured out, and they could very easily continue their season and RIR dominance this Sunday.

Richmond 1 Predictions

The only driver that may have a shot at stopping the JGR train is Kevin Harvick. When it comes to RIR, he tends to have solid days. And with one of the best stats this season, it would be hard to count Harvick out of the equation this weekend.

Richmond 1 Past Finishes

Among some of the bigger names, guys like Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman run really well at RIR, and with their top 10 finishes at Bristol, they have the (short track) momentum that can carry them to another short track. Then we have the unknowns such as rookie Chase Elliott who was ever so close to really spoiling the veteran party, and Matt DiBenedetto who brought his BK Racing machine to a 6th place finish at Bristol who has a chance to show himself a threat at any short track.

 

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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