Crunching The Numbers: Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 at Pocono

From the high speeds and long race of the Coca-Cola 600, NASCAR stays east and heads north a bit to a different geometrically shaped track; Pocono Raceway. Boasting only 3 turns, this Super speedway delivers quite the speed on a relatively flat track. Below are some track facts, race facts, and driver facts you will want to know before the race on Sunday.

Pocono Raceway Track Specs

  • Track Length: 2.5 Miles
    • Scheduled Laps: 160 (400 miles)
  • Super speedway Configuration: Tri-Oval
  • Turn 1 banking: 14°
  • Turn 2 (tunnel turn) banking: 8°
  • Turn 3 banking: 6°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 3,740 feet
  • Long Pond (Between turns 1 and 2)
    • Length: 3,055feet
  • North (Between turns 2 and 3)
    • Length: 1,780 feet

Trends of the Race

Pocono 1 Track Stats

*4 races has ended under caution (2004, 2005, 2007, and 2010); 2007 was rain shortened

In the last 5 spring races races, we have seen:

  • Margin of Victory 1.391 seconds
  • 27 drivers on the lead lap (average)
  • 6 cautions (average)
    • Lap 33 for the first caution
    • Lap 149.4 for the final caution
Pocono 1 Metrics

Race metrics for the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400

2012 saw the first race that transitioned from 500 wiles down to 400 miles. 2007 saw a rain shortened race at 106 laps.

Past Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 Pole Sitters

Year Driver Team Finish Laps Led
2004 Kasey Kahne Evernham Motorsports 14 4
2005 Michael Waltrip DEI 5 29
2006 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing 1 83
2007 Ryan Newman Team Penske 2 20
2008 Kasey Kahne Evernham Motorsports 1 69
2009 Tony Stewart Stewart Haas Racing 1 39
2010 Kyle Busch Joe Gibbs Racing 2 32
2011 Kurt Busch Team Penske 2 37
2012 Joey Logano Team Penske 1 49
2013 Jimmie Johnson Hendrick Motorsports 1 128
2014 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing 4 4
2015 Kurt Busch Stewart Haas Racing 5 0

 

Kurt-Bush-Pole-Spring-Pocono-2015-660x400

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 3.25
  • Average laps lead: 41.17 laps (25.73% of the scheduled 160 laps)

 

 

 

Past Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 6.33
    • Carl Edwards won in 2005 from starting P29, which is the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 41.67% of pole winners have gone on to win the race
    • Denny Hamlin: 2006
    • Kasey Kahne: 2008
    • Tony Stewart: 2009
    • Joey Logano: 2012
    • Jimmie Johnson: 2013
  • 75% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
    • 33.33% of winners who started in the top 5 started from the front 2 rows
  • 58.3% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 66.75 laps (41.72% of the scheduled 160 lap race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Dale Earnhardt Jr. lead 11 laps (6.88% of the race) in 2014
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Jimmie Johnson led 128 laps (80% of the race) in 2013
  • There have been 9 different race winners from 7 different teams since 2004
    • Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Denny Hamlin lead the field of multiple wins with 2 a piece
    • Hendrick Motorsports has the most wins of any team with 5


truex-pollex-pocono2015 Axalta We Paint Winners 400 5 – 6/7/15

Driver Finish Start
Martin Truex Jr. 1 3
Kevin Harvick 2 5
Jimmie Johnson 3 9
Joey Logano 4 11
Kurt Busch 5 1

 

mk-pocono-win

2015 Windows 10 400 Top 5 – 8/2/15

Driver Finish Start
Matt Kenseth 1 7
Brad Keselowski 2 9
Jeff Gordon 3 10
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 4 15
Greg Biffle 5 25
Jimmie Johnson 6 12

 

Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 Predictions

Pocono 1 Team Stats

Pocono 1 Manufacturers

Once again, Toyota won this season, giving themselves a commanding lead over Chevrolet and Ford. While Pocono produces Chevrolet winners more times than not, with the way Toyota has been running this season, the tables could turn again. Luckily, Chevrolet has some bullets in the chamber when it comes to masters of Pocono.

 

Pocono 1 Predictions

The top 4 drivers (above) are all Chevrolet, but right below them are the fast Toyota cars from the stable of Joe Gibbs Racing. This could be a place for a first time winner in Kyle Larson or Chase Elliott this season. Larson has run very well at Pocono and with his luck as of late, he might be able to turn the luck into a victory.

Pocono 1 Past Finishes

So, who do you think has what it takes to defeat the tricky triangle? Will we see Martin Truex Jr. put on another dominating performance? Will Jimmie Johnson or Kevin Harvick find their luck again and snap the Toyota winning train? Or will we see a new winner this weekend? One thing is for sure; we all hope the rain avoids the Poconos!

 

Complete power rankings for the Axalta We Paint Winners 400 at Pocono Raceway

NameTeamMakePower RankingRank for RaceAverage Finish - 2016Wins - 2016Average Finish - Pocono (June)Wins - Pocono (June)Average Finish - PoconoWins - PoconoAverage Finish - Super SpeedwayWins - Super Speedway
Jimmie JohnsonHendrick MotorsportsChevrolet0.5717110.6228.4229.54312.5912
Kevin HarvickStewart Haas RacingChevrolet0.558827.15112.67013.75013.092
Kurt BuschStewart Haas RacingChevrolet0.545838.92013.55016.17216.594
Kyle LarsonChip Ganassi RacingChevrolet0.5079420.3106.509015.380
Denny HamlinJoe Gibbs RacingToyota0.4732515.2319.5212.3415.666
Carl EdwardsJoe Gibbs RacingToyota0.4587611.08217.73115212.45
Chase ElliottHendrick MotorsportsChevrolet0.4513712.540....120
Joey LoganoTeam PenskeFord0.4476812.92014.57115.93114.82
Kyle BuschJoe Gibbs RacingToyota0.4391911.31314.27018.41015.795
Dale Earnhardt Jr.Hendrick MotorsportsChevrolet0.42941014.92011.17114.75217.014
Martin Truex Jr.Furniture Row RacingToyota0.42091111.54113.1114.5117.311
Matt KensethJoe Gibbs RacingToyota0.37341215.38117.5018.08113.795
Ryan NewmanRichard Childress RacingChevrolet0.36311316.62017.83014.83015.942
Brad KeselowskiTeam PenskeFord0.35551410.92216.17012.75114.382
Tony StewartStewart Haas RacingChevrolet0.31751519015.33113.33112.535
Clint BowyerHscott MotorsportsChevrolet0.31231623.38016.6013013.730
Kasey KahneHendrick MotorsportsChevrolet0.30691717.54020.42118.92216.884
Jamie McMurrayChip Ganassi RacingChevrolet0.28641816.54018.58018.83018.151
Brian VickersStewart Haas RacingChevrolet0.2471923.8016.13018.81017.161
Greg BiffleRoush Fenway RacingFord0.24432022.23020015.75115.986
Austin DillonRichard Childress RacingChevrolet0.22382113.92018016017.710
Ryan BlaneyWood Brothers RacingFord0.19462217.230....23.750
Paul MenardRichard Childress RacingChevrolet0.17222320.69023.11022.890201
AJ AllmendingerJTG Daugherty RacingChevrolet0.16842416.62026.56024.5021.420
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.Roush Fenway RacingFord0.16632518027.67029.33024.320
Casey MearsGermain RacingChevrolet0.11122626022023.46022.990
Michael WaltripPremium MotorsportsToyota0.08822712023.2027026.130
Michael WaltripBK RacingToyota0.08772830023.2027026.130
Trevor BayneRoush Fenway RacingFord0.08582918.77024032026.750
Ty DillonStewart Haas RacingChevrolet0.080230190180180160
Ty DillonCircle Sport - Leavine Family RacingChevrolet0.07713122.50180180160
Brian ScottRichard Petty MotorsportsFord0.07533226.460....27.50
Regan SmithTommy Baldwin RacingChevrolet0.07523328.77022020.67023.80
Bobby LabonteGo FAS RacingFord0.06953425023.1024.05024.880
Reed SorensonPremium MotorsportsChevrolet0.06363537.71025.83030.21028.280
Reed SorensonPremium MotorsportsToyota0.06363637.71025.83030.21028.280
David RaganBK RacingToyota0.03873728.15024.89023.17021.90
Aric AlmirolaRichard Petty MotorsportsFord0.02833823.54028.5025.63024.550
Danica PatrickStewart Haas RacingChevrolet0.01413923034.33030.67025.890
Landon CassillFront Row MotorsportsFord0.0134024.46032.6031029.570
Michael McDowellCircle Sport - Leavine Family RacingChevrolet0.01084126.75036.2036037.190
Matt DiBenedettoBK RacingToyota0.00724229.54032030.50330
Chris BuescherFront Row MotorsportsFord04329.850....26.50
Cole WhittPremium MotorsportsChevrolet04431.36029026.50270
Cole WhittPremium MotorsportsToyota04531.36029026.50270
David GillilandFront Row MotorsportsFord04617028.44029.61029.390
Jeffrey EarnhardtGo FAS RacingFord04735.50....340
Joey GaseGo FAS RacingFord048340......
Josh WiseThe Motorsports GroupChevrolet04936.73035034.570360
Michael AnnettHscott MotorsportsChevrolet05032.77027025.5028.850
Robert Richardson Jr.BK RacingToyota051380......
Ryan EllisBK RacingToyota052370......

 

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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