Crunching The Numbers: FireKeepers 400 at Michigan

Heading away from the East coast, NASCAR will find themselves in Michigan this weekend at Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Rain was a factor at Pocono, moving the race to Monday; and it was a factor last year at Michigan. Will we see the same thing this weekend?

Michigan International Speedway Track Specs

  • Track Length: 2.0 Miles
    • Scheduled Laps: 200 (400 miles)
  • Super speedway Configuration: D-Shaped Oval
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 18°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 3,600 feet
    • Banking: 12°
  • Backstreth
    • Length: 2,242 feet
    • Banking: 5°

Trends of the Race

Michigan 1 Track Stats

  • 4 races has ended under caution (2004, 2006, 2008, and 2015)
    • 2006 and 2015 were rain shortened

In the last 5 spring races races, we have seen:

  • Margin of Victory 2.469 seconds
    • 1 caution finish
  • 21 drivers on the lead lap (average)
  • 7 cautions (average)
    • Lap 7 for the first caution
    • Lap 156 for the final caution
Michigan 1 Metrics

2006 and 2015 were rain shortened races

Past FireKeepers Casino 400 Pole Sitters

Year Driver Team Finish Laps Led
2004 Jeff Gordn Hendrick Motorsports 38 81
2005 Ryan Newman Team Penske 15 3
2006 Kasey Kahne Hendrick Motorsports 1 19
2007 J.J. Yeley Joe Gibbs Racing 28 0
2008 Kyle Busch Joe Gibbs Racing 13 5
2009 Brian Vickers Red Bull Racing 9 0
2010 Kurt Busch Team Penske 3 60
2011 Kurt Busch Team Penske 11 9
2012 Marcos Ambrose Richard Petty Motorsports 9 15
2013 Carl Edwards Roush Fenway Racing 8 16
2014 Kevin Harvick Stewart Haas Racing 2 63
2015 Kasey Kahne Hendrick Motorsports 15 1


KK MI Pole

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 12.67
  • Average laps lead: 22.67 laps (11.34% of the scheduled 200 laps)





Past FireKeepers Casino 400 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is13.42
    • Mark Martin won in 2009 from starting P32, which is the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 8.33% of pole winners have gone on to win the race
    • Kasey Kahne: 2006
  • 25% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 50% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
    • P7 has won twice with Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson in 2010 and 2014 respectively
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 41.75 laps (20.88% of the scheduled 200 lap race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Mark Martin lead 1 lap (0.50% of the race) in 2009
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Denny Hamlin led 123 laps (61.5% of the race) in 2010
  • There have been 9 different race winners from 6 different teams since 2004
    • Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Greg Biffle lead the field of multiple wins with 2 a piece
    • Hendrick Motorsports has the most wins of any team with 4


usa-today-8610873.02015 Quicken Loans 400 – 6/14/15

Driver Finish Start
Kurt Busch 1 24
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2 14
Martin Truex Jr. 3 9
Matt Kenseth 4 12
Joey Logano 5 11


2015 Pure Michigan 400 Top 5 – 8/16/15

Driver Finish Start
Matt Kenseth 1 1
Kevin Harvick 2 7
Martin Truex Jr. 3 22
Austin Dillon 4 4
Denny Hamlin 5 2



FireKeepers Casino 400 Predictions

Michigan 1 Team Stats

Michigan 1 Manufacturers

Chevrolet earned their 4th victory of the season and the 2nd for Stewart Haas Racing. The Chevrolets looked stout at Pocono, with Chase Elliott leading the most laps. Team Penske was strong as well. This bodes well for both teams heading into Michigan this weekend.

Michigan 1 Predictions

Chase Elliott!? Why not! This driver virtually dominated at Pocono, leading the most laps only to finish 4th. He has shown tremendous speed all season long and it is only a matter of time before he closes the deal. With his skills on the Super Speedways this year, and overall, he has shown he has the speed and skills to run up front. But, if you want to look for a more veteran driver, Carl Edwards has a fantastic finish at Michigan in his 11 starts.

Michigan 1 Past Finishes


Michigan is fast. Fuel mileage has come into play several times. Weather is always a factor. What combination will we see this weekend? Tune in Sunday afternoon to find out who will grab the checkered flag!

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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