Crunching The Numbers: Pennsylvania 400 at Pocono Raceway

Pocono Raceway Track Specs

  • Track Length: 2.5 Miles
    • Scheduled Laps: 160 (400 miles)
  • Configuration: Superspeedway Tri-Oval
  • Turns 1 banking: 14°
  • Turns 2 (tunnel) banking: 8°
  • Turns 3 banking: 6°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 3,740 feet
    • Banking: 0°
  • Long Pond (between turns 1 and 2)
    • Length: 3,055 feet
    • Banking: 0°
  • North (between turns 2 and 3)
    • Length: 1,780 feet
    • Banking: 0°

Trends of the Race

Pocono 2 - Track Stats

  • Overtime: 0 times
  • Caution Finishes: 2 times (2005 and 2015)
  • Rain Shortened: 1 time (2012)

Trending of the past 5 races:

  • Margin of Victory 2.856 seconds
    • Caution finish in 2012
  • 7 cautions (average)
    • Lap 10 for the first caution
    • Lap 135.4 for the final caution
  • 22.4 drivers on the lead lap (average)

Trending of the past 4 races (when the race went from 500 miles to 400 miles):

  • Margin of Victory 3.554 seconds
    • Caution finish in 2012
  • 7 cautions (average)
    • Lap 10 for the first caution
    • Lap 124 for the final caution
  • 21.5 drivers on the lead lap (average)

Pocono 2 - Metrics

Past Pennsylvania 400 Pole Sitters

Pocono 2 - Pole Winners

LONG POND, PA - JULY 31: Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 M&M's Crispy Toyota, and Miss Coors Light Amanda Mertz pose with the Coors Light Pole Award after Busch qualifyied on the pole for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway on July 31, 2015 in Long Pond, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images)

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 11.5
  • Average laps lead: 17.25 laps (10.78% of the scheduled 160 laps)





Past Pennsylvania 400 Race Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 10.5
    • Jeff Gordon won in 2012 from starting P27, which is the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 8.33% of pole winners have gone on to win the race
    • Denny Hamlin: 2006
  • 25% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 50% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 22.5 laps (14.06% of the scheduled 160 lap race)
    • When the race was 500 miles, the winning drivers lead an average of 96.5 laps (48.25% of the 200 lap race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Matt Kenseth lead 2 laps (1.25% of the race; 160 laps) in 2015
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Kurt Busch led 175 laps (87.5% of the race; 200 laps) in 2007
  • There have been 10 different race winners from 5 different teams since 2004
    • Denny Hamlin and Kurt Busch lead the [active] field with 2 wins each
    • Hendrick Motorsports leads the field with 4 wins

ec2db8e1b64bcb4c4b9700265cb7df89  Pocono 2 - 2015.2 Top 5

GettyImages-538416682.0  Pocono 2 - 2016.1 Top 5


Team & Manufacturer Stats

Pocono 2 - Teams

Pocono 2 - Manufacturers

A few months, NASCAR visited Pocono and Kurt Busch found his way to victory lane. In Fact, the top 5 finishers were Chevrolet and Ford; not a Toyota to be found. The picture is much different as of late where the Toyota camp, specifically of Joe Gibbs Racing and alliance partner Furniture Row Racing, have been dominating the summer. The dynamic duo of Team Penske currently are holding down the fort with the best (team) average finish of 10.7 anchored with 5 wins. Not far behind are Furniture Row Racing and JGR who total for 10 victories this season of the 20 races that has been run; sounds like domination in my book. Kyle Busch has been the most dominate driver this summer, but his visits to Pocono are far from lovely; but can all this great momentum he has change this at the Tricky Triangle this weekend? Or, can the Chevrolet camp step it up once again and put a driver back in victory lane? Chase Elliott ran an amazing race here back in June; can he turn his season around here? We also have one of the best Pocono veterans back in the car with Jeff Gordon; can he make some magic happen for quite possible his final time in the car (at least for this season)? So much can happen this weekend, including rain because it is Pocono.

Pennsylvania 400 Predictions 

Pocono 2 - Predictions

Because of Chase Elliott’s stellar run in June and his near perfection on Super Speedways, he tops the leader board. It is hard to believe that Kyle Busch is no where in sight, but he and Pocono do not quite get along. This could truly be a race for Chevrolet to get back to their winnings ways as Kurt Busch looks to repeat this year; but Matt Kenseth is the defending race winner. Let us not forget that Jeff Gordon is also back in the car this weekend and he is a master at Pocono.

Pocono 2 - Past Finishes

This graph now includes the finish at Pocono back in June. 2nd place finisher earlier this year, Brad Keselowski, has been pretty consistent at Pocono, and maybe that will play to his advantage again. We also see the extreme consistency that Jeff Gordon has at this track, and after finishing 13th after 19 races off, Gordon has not slowed down. Another fairly consistent driver at Pocono is Greg Biffle, and with the turns that organization has made, another solid finish could be in the books for Biffle. But, while Kyle Busch is not on the list because of his poor relationship here, does not mean he should not be looked at; maybe fate has a change in the tides for him.

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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