Crunching The Numbers: Hellmann’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway

Round 1: Complete
Chicagoland check mark
Loudon check mark
Dover check mark

Round 2:
Charlotte check mark
Kansas check mark
Talladega: Sunday, 10/23/16 @ 2pm (EST) on NBCSN

Talladega Superspeedway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 2.66 Mile Tri-Oval
    • Scheduled Laps: 188 (500.08 miles)
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 33°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 2,150 feet
    • Banking (Tri-oval): 18°
  • Backstretch
    • Length: 4,000 feet
    • Banking: Minimal°

Trends of the Race

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  • Overtime: 2005, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015
  • Caution Finishes: 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015
  • Rain Shortened: 0 times

Trending of the past 5 races:

  • Margin of Victory 0.08 seconds
    • 3 caution finishes: 2012, 2013, 2015
  • 5 cautions
    • Lap 48 for the first caution
    • Lap 188 for the final caution
  • 27 drivers on the lead lap

Past Hellmann’s 500 Pole Sitters

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  • Pole winners have an average finish of 18.5
  • No pole winner has gone on to win the race
  • Average laps lead: 5.92 laps (3.15% of the scheduled 188 laps)

 

  • A chase driver has won the pole 3 times in the The Chase era – 2009, 2012, 2015
  • Jeff Gordon won his 81st and final pole in this race in 2015

 

 

Past Hellmann’s 500 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 12.92
    • Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart started from P34 in 2007 and 2008 respectively, the furthest back a race winner has started (both were Chase drivers)
  • 0% of pole winners have gone on to win the race
  • 33.33% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 66.67% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 78.67 laps (23.55% of the scheduled 334 lap race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Jeff Gordon led 1 laps (0.53% of the race) in 2007
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Dale Earnhardt Jr. led 78 laps (41.49% of the race) in 2004
    • A Chase driver has won this race 7 out of the past 12 years; most recently with Team Penske back-to-back in 2014 and 2015
  • There have been 10 different race winners from 7 different teams since 2004
    • Clint Bowyer and Jamie McMurray lead the [active] field with 2 wins a piece
      • Clint Bowyer went back-to-back in 2010 and 2011
      • Jamie McMurry most recently visited victory lane in 2013 (as a non-Chase contender in both wins)
    • Roush Fenway Racing lead the field with 3 wins

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Team & Manufacturer Stats

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talladega-2-manufacturer-stats

Hellmann’s 500 Predictions & Analysis

talladega-2-predictions

talladega-2-past-finishes-graph

In pure dominate fashion, Joey Logano swept the second round of The Chase in 2015 with a victory at Talladega. Teammate Brad Keselowski won at Talladega earlier this year. Keselowski is currently on the outside looking in for keeping his Chase hopes alive, while Logano is barely holding onto the final spot in The Chase.

2016 Chase Drivers’ Stats

talladega-2-chaser-stats

Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick both can ride at the back this weekend as they are locked into the third round. At this point, they must be looking pretty favorable for Homestead. Chase Elliott finds himself at the bottom on the pack after 2 poor races; the only real way he will move on is through a victory. He may only have one finish at Talladega, but that finish resulted in P5. With this race being quite unpredictable, we only know for sure that Johnson and Harvick are safe; the remaining 6 spots are up for grabs.

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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