Crunching The Numbers: AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Round 1: Complete
Chicagoland check mark Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Loudon check mark Winner: Kevin Harvick
Dover check mark Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Eliminated Drivers: Chris Buescher, Jamie McMurray, Kyle Larson, Tony Stewart

Round 2: Complete
Charlotte check mark Winner: Jimmie Johnson
Kansas check mark Winner: Kevin Harvick
Talladega: check mark Winner: Joey Logano
Eliminated Drivers: Austin Dillon, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr.

Round 3:
Martinsville: check mark Winner: Jimmie Johnson
Texas: Sunday, 11/6/16 @ 2pm (EST) on NBC
Phoenix: Sunday, 11/13/16 @ 2:30pm (EST) on NBC

Texas Motor Speedway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 1.5 Mile -QuadOval
    • Scheduled Laps: 334 (501 miles)
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 24°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 2,250 feet
    • Banking: 5°
  • Backstretch
    • Length: 1,330 feet
    • Banking: 5°

Trends of the Race

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  • Overtime: 2006, 2012, 2014
  • Caution Finishes: 0 times
  • Rain Shortened: 0 times

Trending of the past 5 races:

  • Margin of Victory 1.577 seconds
  • 9 cautions
    • Lap 57 for the first caution
    • Lap 302 for the final caution
  • 21 drivers on the lead lap

Past AAA Texas 500 Pole Sitters

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  • Pole winners have an average finish of 16.27
  • 9% of pole winners have gone on to win the race
  • Average laps lead: 59 laps (17.61% of the scheduled 334 laps)
  • A chase driver has won the pole 8 times (72.7%) in the The Chase era

Past AAA Texas 500 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 10.5
    • Denny Hamlin started from P30 in 2010, the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 45.5% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
    • The mode, or most common, starting position of the race winner is P8
  • 72.7% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 135.8 laps (40.66% of the scheduled 334 lap race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Jimmie Johnson led 6 laps (1.8% of the race) in 2015
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Tony Stewart led 278 laps (82.2% of the race) in 2006
    • A Chase driver has won this race 8 out of the past 11 years
  • There have been 5 different race winners from 5 different teams since 2005
    • Jimmie Johnson leads the [active] field with 5 wins
    • Jimmie Johnson has won this race since 2012
    • Hendrick Motorsports lead the field with 5 wins

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Team & Manufacturer Stats

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texas-2-16-make-stats

AAA Texas 500 Predictions & Analysis

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It is very difficult to root against Jimmie Johnson at Texas; seeing as he is the 4-time defending champion of this race. The past 2 years, Johnson has not been in The Chase, so those wins were stolen away from a Chase contender. This year, Johnson is in The Chase and has already punched his ticket as one of the final 4, so he has nothing to lose this weekend.

If you want some other options, both Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth have amazing average finishes in the AAA Texas 500; both under 8. While Johnson steals the thunder of victories, both Harvick and Kenseth are incredibly consistent. But we also need to remember that last year, Kenseth had to sit this race out, so he could be incredibly hungry for victory.

2016 Chase Drivers’ Stats

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Jimmie Johnson is locked into the Championship battle at Homestead, but who will join him after this weekend? Will anyone join him for that fact?

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y’all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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