Crunching The Numbers: Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway

It all comes down to this; 4 drivers, 1 champion. Will Kyle Busch defend his title? Will Jimmie Johnson get #7? Will Carl Edwards finally be able to get his first title after losing to Tony Stewart in a tie-breaker? Can Joey Logano write his own name in the history books? The 2016 season comes to a close on Sunday and we will know which history will be made.

Homestead-Miami Speedway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 1.5 Mile – Oval
    • Scheduled Laps: 267 (400.5miles)
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 18° – 20°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 1,760 feet
    • Banking: 4°
  • Backstretch
    • Length: 1,760 feet
    • Banking: 4°

Trends of the Race

homestead-track-stats-2016

  • Overtime: 2004 & 2006
  • Caution Finishes: 0 times
  • Rain Shortened: 0 times

Trending of the past 5 races:

  • Margin of Victory 1.037 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • Lap 26 for the first caution
    • Lap 224 for the final caution
  • 20 drivers on the lead lap

Past Ford EcoBoost 400 Pole Sitters

homestead-2016-past-pole-sitters

112015-nascar-denny-hamlin-driver-of-the-11-fedex-ground-toyota-pi-vresize-1200-675-high-45

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 10.67
  • Nopole winners have gone on to win the race
  • Average laps lead: 54 laps (20.32% of the scheduled 267 laps)
  • A chase driver has won the pole 50% of the time in the The Chase era

 

Past Ford EcoBoost 400 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 10.2
    • Denny Hamlin started from P38 in 2009, the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 58.33% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
    • The mode, or most common, starting position of the race winner is P2, P4, and P5
  • 66.67% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 87.58  laps (32.80% of the scheduled 267 lap race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Greg Biffle led 9 laps (3.37% of the race) in 2005
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Matt Kenseth led 214 laps (80.15% of the race) in 2007
    • A Chase driver has won this race 75% of the time
      • The past two winners have been in the Championship 4
  • There have been 8 different race winners from 4 different teams since 2004
    • Greg Biffle leads the [active] field with 3 wins
    • Roush Fenway Racing lead the field with 6 wins

download homestead-2015-top-5

 

Team & Manufacturer Stats

homestead-2016-team-stats

homestead-2016-manufacturer-stats

 

Ford EcoBoost 400 Predictions & Analysis

homestead-2016-predictions

homestead-2016-past-finishes

It all comes down to this; 1 final race. The Championship 4, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch will battle one final time to see who comes out on top. Last year, Kyle Busch won the race and therefore, was the 2015 NASCAR Spring Cup Champion. With the competition as tight as it is, we might just see the race winner be the Champion.

While Kevin Harvick may be out of the title hunt, you can bet he will still drive his heart out and try to spoil the party. He and Edwards have some outstanding numbers at Homestead so it is no wonder why they are at the top. Chase wise, this points to good things for Carl Edwards.

 

2016 Chase Drivers’ Stats

homestead-2016-chaser-stats

During The Chase, Kyle Busch has posted the best average finish, while Carl Edwards has posted the worst average finish. Does it really matter? Not really because this comes down to 1 race. So, who do you think it will be?

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *