Crunching The Numbers: Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway

It all comes down to this; 4 drivers, 1 champion. Will Kyle Busch defend his title? Will Jimmie Johnson get #7? Will Carl Edwards finally be able to get his first title after losing to Tony Stewart in a tie-breaker? Can Joey Logano write his own name in the history books? The 2016 season comes to a close on Sunday and we will know which history will be made.

Homestead-Miami Speedway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 1.5 Mile – Oval
    • Scheduled Laps: 267 (400.5miles)
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 18° – 20°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 1,760 feet
    • Banking: 4°
  • Backstretch
    • Length: 1,760 feet
    • Banking: 4°

Trends of the Race


  • Overtime: 2004 & 2006
  • Caution Finishes: 0 times
  • Rain Shortened: 0 times

Trending of the past 5 races:

  • Margin of Victory 1.037 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • Lap 26 for the first caution
    • Lap 224 for the final caution
  • 20 drivers on the lead lap

Past Ford EcoBoost 400 Pole Sitters



  • Pole winners have an average finish of 10.67
  • Nopole winners have gone on to win the race
  • Average laps lead: 54 laps (20.32% of the scheduled 267 laps)
  • A chase driver has won the pole 50% of the time in the The Chase era


Past Ford EcoBoost 400 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 10.2
    • Denny Hamlin started from P38 in 2009, the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 58.33% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
    • The mode, or most common, starting position of the race winner is P2, P4, and P5
  • 66.67% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 87.58  laps (32.80% of the scheduled 267 lap race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Greg Biffle led 9 laps (3.37% of the race) in 2005
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Matt Kenseth led 214 laps (80.15% of the race) in 2007
    • A Chase driver has won this race 75% of the time
      • The past two winners have been in the Championship 4
  • There have been 8 different race winners from 4 different teams since 2004
    • Greg Biffle leads the [active] field with 3 wins
    • Roush Fenway Racing lead the field with 6 wins

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Team & Manufacturer Stats




Ford EcoBoost 400 Predictions & Analysis



It all comes down to this; 1 final race. The Championship 4, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch will battle one final time to see who comes out on top. Last year, Kyle Busch won the race and therefore, was the 2015 NASCAR Spring Cup Champion. With the competition as tight as it is, we might just see the race winner be the Champion.

While Kevin Harvick may be out of the title hunt, you can bet he will still drive his heart out and try to spoil the party. He and Edwards have some outstanding numbers at Homestead so it is no wonder why they are at the top. Chase wise, this points to good things for Carl Edwards.


2016 Chase Drivers’ Stats


During The Chase, Kyle Busch has posted the best average finish, while Carl Edwards has posted the worst average finish. Does it really matter? Not really because this comes down to 1 race. So, who do you think it will be?

Ashley Hobbs

I was born on the 9th of March in a year which you need not know. I was born and raised in the great state of New Jersey, but I now reside in Florida. Here is a bit about myself:

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I hope you enjoy my segment, Crunching the Numbers, and getting insights into each weekend's NASCAR race!

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