Crunching The Numbers: 2017 Hollywood Casino 400

After surviving Talladega, the field heads to a less chaotic track in Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400. Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski are the only ones moving onto the round. The rest of the field could be fighting hard for their spot in the next round. So, who has the right numbers at Kansas Speedway to help them make it there?

Kansas Speedway Track Specs

• Track Length: 1.5 Miles
  • Scheduled Laps: 267 (400.5 miles)
  • Stage 1 End: 80
  • Stage 2 End: 160
• Track Configuration: D-Shaped Oval
• Turns 1 – 4 banking: 17° – 20°
• Frontstretch
  • Banking: 10°
  • Length: 2,721 feet
• Backstretch
  • Banking: 5.5°
  • Length: 2,207 feet

Hollywood Casino 400 Trends of the Race

• Overtime: 2 (2011 & 2015)
• Caution Finishes: 1 (2007)
• Rain Shortened: 1 (2007)

Trending of the past 5 Fall races:

• Margin of Victory 0.758 seconds
• 10 cautions
  • First Caution: Lap 33
  • Final Caution: Lap 243 (24 laps to go)
• 22 drivers on the lead lap

Trending of the past 10 Fall races:

• Margin of Victory 1.461 seconds
• 9 cautions
  • First Caution: Lap 32
  • Final Caution: Lap 234 (33 laps to go)
• 21 drivers on the lead lap

Hollywood Casino 400 Pole Sitters

• Pole winners have an average finish of 10.8
• Average laps lead: 50.2 laps (18.8% of the race)
• 23.1% of pole winners find their way to victory lane
• Most laps led by a pole sitter was 138 (51.7% of the race) by Kevin Harvick in 2013
  • Kevin Harvick won that race
• 53.8% of pole winners are current Playoff contenders
  • 23.1% of pole winners have been eliminated from Playoff contention this year

Hollywood Casino 400 Winners

• The average race winner’s starting position is 9.2
  • Tony Stewart started from P21 in 2006, the furthest back a race winner has started
  • The median race winner’s starting position is P7
  • The mode of race winner’s starting position is P1
• 46.2% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
• 53.8% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
• Winning drivers have lead an average of 84.2 laps (31.5% of the race)
  • Fewest laps led by race winner: Tony Stewart led 5 laps (1.9% of the race) in 2006
  • Most laps led by a race winner: Jimmie Johnson led 197 laps (73.8% of the race) in 2011
• There have been 8 different race winners from 7 different teams since 2004
  • Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, & Joey Logano lead the active field with 2 wins each
  • Roush Fenway Racing leads the field with 4 wins
• 38.5% of Hollywood Casino 400 winners have come from the Playoff field

Hollywood Casino 400 & Manufacturer Statistics

Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions & Analysis

Kevin Harvick is the defending race winner, while Martin Truex Jr. won earlier this year. Jimmie Johnson has some outstanding statistics when it comes to the Hollywood Casino 400. Those who above the cut line are at the top of the rankings, while those below it might need some magic come their way.

Hollywood Casino 400 Chaser Stats

Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski have secured their spots in the next round. On the flip side, Jamie McMurray, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Matt Kenseth, and Kyle Busch current find themselves below the cut line. While McMurray and Stenhouse Jr. find themselves in deep holes (-29 and -22 from 8th place Jimmie Johnson), Kenseth and Busch are within 10 points. Johnson is not safe either as he is only 7 point above Busch; and Ryan Blaney is only 9 points above. Chase Elliott through Kyle Larson have a cushion, but still cannot afford to have a sour day.

So, how have the Playoff contenders been finishing thus far? The graph below shows the 12 drivers’ finishes through the 5 Playoff races. They are ordered by their average Playoff finish.

Ashley Hobbs

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I hope you enjoy my segment, Crunching the Numbers, and getting insights into each weekend's NASCAR race!