Crunching The Numbers: AAA 500 at TMS

With only 2 races before the Championship race, teams head to the AAA 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. A fast track could play to the driving styles of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott, but Jimmie Johnson is king here.

Texas Motor Speedway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 1.5 Mile Quad-Oval
    • Scheduled Laps: 334 (501 miles)
    • Stage 1 End: 85
    • Stage 2 End: 170
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 24°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 2,250 feet
    • Banking: 5°
  • Backstretch
    • Length: 1,330 feet
    • Banking: 5°

AAA 500 Trends of the Race

  • Overtime: 3 (2006, 2012, & 2014)
  • Caution Finishes: 1 (2016)
  • Rain Shortened: 1 (2016)

Trending of the past 5 Fall races:

  • Margin of Victory 1.698 seconds
  • 9 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 34
    • Final Caution: Lap 306 (28 laps to go)
  • 20 drivers on the lead lap

Trending of the past 10 Fall races:

  • Margin of Victory 4.813 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 38
    • Final Caution: Lap 290 (44 laps to go)
  • 18 drivers on the lead lap

AAA 500 Pole Sitters

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 18.0
  • Average laps lead: 54.4 laps (16.3% of the race)
  • 8.3% of pole winners find their way to victory lane
  • Most laps led by a pole sitter was 312 (93.4% of the race) by Brad Keselowski in 2015
    • Keselowski finished P2
  • 33.3% of pole winners are current Playoff contenders
    • 16.7% of pole winners have been eliminated from Playoff contention this year

AAA 500 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 10.3
    • The median race winner’s starting position is P8
    • The mode of race winner’s starting position is P3 & P8
    • Carl Edwards & Denny Hamlin started from P30 in 2005 & 2010 (respectively), the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 41.7% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 75.0% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 127.5 laps (38.2% of the race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Jimmie Johnson t led 6 laps (1.8% of the race) in 2015
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Tony Stewart led 278 laps (83.2% of the race) in 2006
  • There have been 5 different race winners from 5 different teams since 2005
    • Jimmie Johnson leads the active field with 5 wins
    • Hendrick Motorsports leads the field with 5 wins
  • 50.0% of AAA 500 winners have come from the Playoff field

AAA 500 & Manufacturer Statistics

AAA 500 Predictions & Analysis

After a wild First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway, Kyle Busch came out on top, followed closely by Martin Truex Jr. This assures Kyle Busch as one of the final four competing for the title. Will someone new join him this weekend?

AAA 500 Playoff Contender Stats

Kyle Busch is safe from elimination, and Martin Truex Jr. is still going strong. These two drivers total 85.7% of the Playoff wins, so it would be shocking to not see it come down to them at Homestead. Brad Keselowski is still going strong, as is Chase Elliott in the Playoffs, but both would like to leave Texas with a victory. Can either of them make it happen?

The graph below shows the 8 drivers’ finishes through the 7 Playoff races. They are ordered by their average Playoff finish.

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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