Crunching the Numbers: 2017 Ford EcoBoost 400

It all comes down to this; the Ford EcoBoost 400 to determine the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion! Four drivers are going to battle it out for the chance to hoist the trophy. Martin Truex Jr., the best driver this season with a sub-10 average finish and 7 victories. Kyle Busch, the most recent NASCAR champion. Kevin Harvick, the best driver at Homestead of the four, and a previous champion. Brad Keselowski, a past champion and the driver who is considered the sleeper of the group. Which one will prevail after 267 laps?

Homestead-Miami Speedway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 1.5 Mile – Oval
    • Scheduled Laps: 267 (400.5 miles)
    • Stage 1 End: Lap 80
    • Stage 2 End: Lap 160
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 18° – 20°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 1,760 feet
    • Banking: 4°
  • Backstretch
    • Length: 1,760 feet
    • Banking: 4°

Ford EcoBoost 400 Trends of the Race

  • Overtime: 3 (2004, 2006, & 2016)
  • Caution Finishes: 0
  • Rain Shortened: 0

Trending of the past 5 Fall races:

  • Margin of Victory 0.869 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 29
    • Final Caution: Lap 234 (33 laps to go)
  • 20 drivers on the lead lap

Trending of the past 10 Fall races:

  • Margin of Victory 1.829 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 38
    • Final Caution: Lap 231 (36 laps to go)
  • 21 drivers on the lead lap

Ford Eco-Boost 400 Pole Sitters

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 10.1
  • Average laps lead: 56.2 laps (21.0% of the race)
  • 0% of pole winners find their way to victory lane
  • Most laps led by a pole sitter was 161 (60.3% of the race) by Jeff Gordon in 2014
    • Gordon finished P10
  • 7.7% of pole winners are current Playoff contenders
    • 53.8% of pole winners have been eliminated from Playoff contention this year

Ford EcoBoost 400 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 10.5
    • The median race winner’s starting position is P5
    • The mode of race winner’s starting position is P2, P4, P5, & P15
    • Denny Hamlin started from P38 in 2009, the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 53.8% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 61.5% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 81.1 laps (30.4% of the race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Jimmie Johnson led 3 laps (1.1% of the race) in 2016 & went on to become the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Matt Kenseth led 214 laps (80.1% of the race) in 2007
  • There have been 9 different race winners from 4 different teams since 2004
    • Denny Hamlin leads the active field with 2 wins
    • Roush Fenway Racing leads the field with 6 wins
  • 15.4% of Ford EcoBoost 400 winners have come from the (active) Playoff field
    • 30.8% of Ford EcoBoost 400 winners have been eliminated from Playoff contention this year

Ford EcoBoost 400 & Manufacturer Statistics

Toyota has been the class of the field all season long, and they have two drivers in the title hunt with Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch; two of the best drivers this season. The other two drivers come from the Ford camp, and Ford has been very strong in the Ford EcoBoost 400. So, is there a chance for a Chevrolet driver to break up the party this weekend?

Ford EcoBoost 400 Predictions & Analysis

Kevin Harvick has an outstanding average finish in the Ford EcoBoost 400, and that points towards another championship for him this weekend. However, Martin Truex Jr. has been the driver to beat this year, especially on intermediate tracks. With an average finish of 3.9, and 6 victories (of the 13 tracks this season to date), it is hard to bet against Martin Truex Jr. this weekend. However, these 4 drivers will be bringing their A+ game, so I expect Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski to challenge Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick all day long.

Ford EcoBoost 400 Playoff Contender Stats

So, it all comes down to 267 laps, 400 miles, between Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch. Driver strengths have been told throughout, so I shall spare the details. Below, we have the stats of the Playoff drivers; from 2017, the Ford EcoBoost 400, and the Playoffs’ 9 races thus far.

The graph below shows the Final Four drivers’ finishes through the 9 Playoff races. They are ordered by their average Playoff finish.

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y’all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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