Crunching the Numbers: 2017 Can-Am 500

The Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway is the final stop before the Championship race at Homestead Miami Speedway. 75% of the positions have been filled; who will come out of PIR victorious and be on their way to a NASCAR Championship?

Phoenix International Raceway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 1.0 Mile Quad-Oval
    • Scheduled Laps: 312 (500 kilometers/312 miles)
    • Stage 1 End: 75
    • Stage 2 End: 150
  • Turns 1 and 2 banking: 10°-11°
  • Turns 3 and 4 banking: 8°-9°
  • Frontstretch banking: 3°
    • 1,179 feet long
  • Backstretch banking: 9°
    • 1,551 feet long
    • Dogleg on the backstretch: 10°-11°

Can-Am 500 Trends of the Race

  • Overtime: 3 (2012, 2015, & 2016)
  • Caution Finishes: 1 (2015)
  • Rain Shortened: 1 (2015)

Trending of the past 5 Fall races:

  • Margin of Victory 1.150 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 29
    • Final Caution: Lap 282 (30 laps to go)
  • 19 drivers on the lead lap

Trending of the past 10 Fall races:

  • Margin of Victory 1.374 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 31
    • Final Caution: Lap 261 (51 laps to go)
  • 19 drivers on the lead lap

Can-Am 500 Pole Sitters

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 12.5
  • Average laps lead: 79.3 laps (25.4% of the race)
  • 15.4% of pole winners find their way to victory lane
  • Most laps led by a pole sitter was 237 (76.0% of the race) by Kyle Busch in 2012
    • Busch finished P3
  • 61.5% of pole winners are current Playoff contenders
    • 7.7% of pole winners have been eliminated from Playoff contention this year

Can-Am 500 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 6.9
    • The median race winner’s starting position is P4
    • The mode of race winner’s starting position is P3
    • Kevin Harvick started from P19 in 2012, the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 53.8% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 76.9% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 113.8 laps (36.5% of the race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Kasey Kahne led 14 laps (4.5% of the race) in 2011
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Kevin Harvick led 264 laps (84.6% of the race) in 2014
  • There have been 7 different race winners from 7 different teams since 2004
    • Kevin Harvick leads the active field with 4 wins
    • Hendrick Motorsports leads the field with 5 wins
  • 61.5% of Can-Am 500 winners have come from the (active) Playoff field

Can-Am 500 & Manufacturer Statistics

Chevrolet has been the top manufacturer in the Can-Am 500, but that was before Kevin Harvick moved over to the Ford camp. With his win last weekend, can Harvick keep up the momentum and add another victory to Ford for this season?

Can-Am 500 Predictions & Analysis

Chase Elliott is in a must win position this weekend in the Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. He has but a single start in this race, but it was a solid top 10 finish. He has had a pretty solid Playoff this season too, so, can he capitalize and grab the final spot in the Championship Four?

Can-Am 500 Playoff Contender Stats

Three of the four spots for the championship race in Homestead have been secured; Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick via wins and Martin Truex Jr. via points. A few drivers are in a must win situation, while a few others will need some good luck if they want to be in the Championship Four.

The graph below shows the 8 drivers’ finishes through the 8 Playoff races. They are ordered by their average Playoff finish.

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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