Crunching the Numbers: ISM Ticket Guardian 500

Can anyone stop Kevin Harvick from going three in a row in the Ticket Guardian 500 from Phoenix International Raceway/PIR/ISM Raceway? With this being the last time the drivers come to PIR in its current configuration, things could change drastically during the Playoffs.

Phoenix International Raceway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 1.0 Mile Quad-Oval
    • Scheduled Laps: 312 (500 kilometers/312 miles)
    • Stage 1 End: 75
    • Stage 2 End: 150
  • Turns 1 and 2 banking: 10°-11°
  • Turns 3 and 4 banking: 8°-9°
  • Frontstretch banking: 3°
    • 1,179 feet long
  • Backstretch banking: 9°
    • 1,551 feet long
    • Dogleg on the backstretch: 10°-11°

Ticket Guardian 500 Trends of the Race

  • Overtime: 4 (2010, 2013, 2016, & 2017)
  • Caution Finishes: 0
  • Rain Shortened: 0
  • 2017 Camping World 400 Winner: Ryan Newman
  • 2017 Camping World 400 Stage 1 Winner: Joey Logano
  • 2017 Camping World 400 Stage 2 Winner: Chase Elliott

Trending of the past 5 Ticket Guardian 500 races:

  • Margin of Victory 0.598 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 29
    • Final Caution: Lap 268 (44 laps to go)
  • 23 drivers on the lead lap

Trending of the past 10 Ticket Guardian 500 races:

  • Margin of Victory 1.931 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 27
    • Final Caution: Lap 279 (33 laps to go)
  • 20 drivers on the lead lap

Ticket Guardian 500 Pole Sitters

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 13.1
  • 30.8% of pole winners find their way to victory lane
  • Average laps lead: 58.2 laps (18.6% of the race)
  • Most laps led by a pole sitter was 224 (71.8% of the race) by Kevin Harvick in 2015
    • Harvick won that race

Ticket Guardian 500 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 9.8
    • The median race winner’s starting position is P13
    • The mode of race winner’s starting position is P1
    • Ryan Newman started from P22 in 2017, the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 38.5% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 46.2% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 113.4 laps (36.3% of the race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Ryan Newman led 4 laps (1.3% of the race) in 2010
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Kevin Harvick led 224 laps (71.8% of the race) in 2014 & 2015
  • There have been 9 different race winners from 4 different teams since 2005
    • Kevin Harvick leads the active field with 3 wins
    • Hendrick Motorsports leads the field with 5 wins
  • Fun Stat: Ryan Newman has won both races by stealing victory with smart race strategy

Ticket Guardian 500 & Manufacturer Statistics

It is no surprise that the top teams in the Ticket Guardian 500 come from the Chevrolet powerhouse of Hendrick Motorsports, Toyota powerhouse of Joe Gibbs Racing, and Ford powerhouse of Stewart-Haas Racing. Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have great track records at Phoenix; and while it has been a while since Jimmie Johnson has visited victory lane, he is consistent and there at the end when it counts most.

Ticket Guardian 500 Predictions

The Ticket Guardian 500 is a nice mixture of younger driver and veteran. Thus far this season, we have seen Kevin Harvick take the reins and show that the veterans still have what it takes to run well. Will the story be the same this weekend? Or, will we see a different winner in the fourth race of this NASCAR season?


Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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