Crunching the Numbers: Auto Club 400

Kevin Harvick is 3 for 3; can be make it a 4th win in a row in the Auto Club 400 from Fontana, California’s Auto Club Speedway?

Auto Club Speedway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 2.0 Mile D-Shaped Oval
    • Scheduled Laps: 200 (400 miles)
    • Stage 1 End: 60
    • Stage 2 End: 120
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 14°
  • Frontstretch banking: 11°
    • 3,100feet long
  • Backstretch banking: 3°
    • 2,500 feet long

 

Auto Club 400 Trends of the Race

Average includes when this race was 250 laps

 

Average since 2011, when the race changed to 200 laps

  • Overtime (based on 200 laps): 4 (2014 – 2017)
  • Caution Finishes: 3 (2008, 2012, & 2013)
  • Rain Shortened: 1 (2012)
  • 2017 Auto Club 400 Winners
    • Stage 1 Winner: Kyle Larson
    • Stage 2 Winner: Kyle Larson
    • Race Winner: Martin Truex Jr.

Trending of the past 5 Auto Club 400 races:

  • Margin of Victory 0.619 seconds
  • 8 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 2
    • Final Caution: Lap 200 (0 laps to go)
  • 27 drivers on the lead lap

Trending of the past 6 Auto Club 400 races (history of 200 laps):

  • Margin of Victory 0.524 seconds
  • 6 cautions
    • First Caution: Lap 44
    • Final Caution: Lap 188 (12 laps to go)
  • 25 drivers on the lead lap

Auto Club 400 Pole Sitters

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 11.5
  • 7.1% of pole winners find their way to victory lane
  • Average laps lead: 26.4 laps (13.2% of the race)
  • Most laps led by a pole sitter was 110 (38.5% of the race) by Kyle Larson in 2017
    • Larson won that race

Auto Club 400 Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 14.0
    • The median race winner’s starting position is P11/P12
    • The mode of race winner’s starting position is P9 & P24
    • Matt Kenseth started from P31 in 2006, the furthest back a race winner has started
  • 21.4% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 50.0% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 61.3 laps (30.6% of the race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Kevin Harvick & Brad Keselowski led 1 lap (0.5% of the race) in 2011 & 2015 respectively
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Kyle Larson led 110 laps (38.5% of the race) in 20147
  • There have been 10 different race winners from 7 different teams since 2004
    • Kyle Busch & Jimmie Johnson lead the active field with 2 wins each
    • Roush Fenway Racing leads the field with 5 wins
  • Fun Stat: Drivers named Kyle have won 3 of the last 5 Auto Club 400 races

Auto club 400 & Manufacturer Statistics

Kevin Harvick has dominated this season, grabbing his 3rd win of the season. In his 14 visits in the Auto Club 400, Harvick does have a victory; but, there are a few drivers who have better records and are going to look to stop the Harvick/Stewart Haas Racing/Ford party.

Auto Club 400 Predictions

The Auto Club 400 is the final race of #NASCARGoesWest (although, they come back West in 2 weeks for Texas). Harvick has dominated so far are West; what driver can stop him? It appears that Kyle Busch is poised for not finishing 2nd to Harvick. Last year’s winner, Kyle Larson, will likely be in the mix as well because he certainly favors these high-speed tracks.

 

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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