Crunching the Numbers: Geico 500 at Talladega Super Speedway

Kyle Busch looks for 4 in a row in the Geico 500 from Talladega Super Speedway. While he does have a victory in this race, it came a decade ago. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won his first career Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race here one year ago and would love to repeat. Who will be running up front when the white flag waves in the Geico 500; and, will they be there when the checkered flag falls?

Talladega Super Speedway Track Specs

  • Track Configuration: 2.66 Mile Tri-Oval
    • Scheduled Laps: 188 (500.08 miles)
    • Stage 1 End: 55
    • Stage 2 End: 110
  • Turns 1 – 4 banking: 33°
  • Frontstretch
    • Length: 2,150 feet
    • Banking (Tri-oval): 18°
  • Backstretch
    • Length: 4,000 feet
    • Banking: Minimal°

Geico 500 Trends of the Race

  • Overtime: 6 (2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2013, & 2017)
  • Caution Finishes: 5 (2004, 2007, 2008, 2014, & 2016)
  • Rain Shortened: 0
  • 2017 Geico 500 Winners
  • Stage 1 Winner: Brad Keselowski
    • Finished P7
  • Stage 2 Winner: Denny Hamlin
    • Finished P11
  • Race Winner: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
    • P2 in Stage 1

Trends of the past 5 Geico 500:

  • Margin of Victory 0.155 seconds
  • 7 cautions
  • First Caution: Lap 26
  • Final Caution: Lap 181 (7 laps before the end)
  • 25 drivers on the lead lap

Trends of the past 10 Geico 500:

  • Margin of Victory 0.137 seconds
  • 7 cautions
  • First Caution: Lap 23
  • Final Caution: Lap 183 (5 laps before the end)
  • 24 drivers on the lead lap

Geico 500 Pole Sitters

  • Pole winners have an average finish of 16.3
  • 14.3% of pole winners find their way to victory lane
  • Average laps lead: 16.0 laps (8.5% of the race)
  • Most laps led by a pole sitter was 71 (37.8% of the race) by Jeff Gordon in 2007
    • Gordon won that race

Geico 500 Race Winners

  • The average race winner’s starting position is 9.1
    • Race winner’s median starting position: 6
    • Race winner’s mode starting position: 1, 2, & 4 (2 wins each from these positions)
    • Denny Hamlin started from P34 in 2014, the furthest back a Geico 500 winner has started
  • 50.0% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • 64.3% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 29.3 laps (29.3% of the race)
    • Fewest laps led by race winner: Brad Keselowski (driving for Hendrick Motorsports) led 1 lap (0.8% of the race) in 2009
    • Most laps led by a race winner: Jeff Gordon (driving for Hendrick Motorsports) led 139 laps (73.9% of the race) in 2005
  • The Geico 500 has seen 9 unique winners from 6 different teams since 2004
    • Brad Keselowski leads the active field with 3 wins
    • Hendrick Motorsports leads the field with 7 wins
  • Fun Facts
    • 4 times, a driver from the same team has won the pole and the race. Only twice has that been the same driver (Jeff Gordon in 2007 and Rickey Stenhouse Jr. in 2017)
    • Past 5 Geico 500 winners have come from 5 different teams

Geico 500 Team & Manufacturer Statistics

Chevrolet is behind the curve this year, with only a single victory; and that was the first race of the season. Ford then went 3 in a row with Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch just earned this third win in a row in Toyota. And no, Kyle Busch, you were not the first Toyota to win the Toyota Owners 400; that accolade goes to your (then) teammate, Carl Edwards in 2016.

 

 

 

 

 

Geico 500 Predictions

Sure, the craziness that is Talladega Super Speedway leaves the winner truly up for grabs; anyone can win. But, there is also some level of skill required to win the Geico 500 as well. Take these rankings with a grain of salt, since truly, anyone left running as the white flag waves has a shot at victory.

Ashley Hobbs

Birthday: 9 March 1989 (so I do not have to update my age each year)
Location: Florida (Jersey native, born and raised)

What better way to combine 2 of my favorite things, NASCAR and statistics, than providing y'all with an analytical report each weekend during the NASCAR season.

When I am not crunching the numbers, I spend time with my hubby, 3 black cats (Ninja, Daytona, and Chronos), and I watch too much TV, especially Doctor Who. Why yes, I am a geek and proud! So join forces with me and follow my weekly Crunching The Numbers segment. Who knows, I may surprise you!

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