Will Martin Truex Jr. defend his Ruoff Mortgage 500 victory at Phoenix? (Photo: Jordan Anders-McClain | The Podium Finish)
As the West Coast Swing closes out with Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix Raceway, it’s no easy afternoon drive at the 1-mile venue.
For teams outside of Hendrick Motorsports, it’s about maximizing the most out of the Next Gen cars. Meanwhile, the Hendrick organization hopes to become the first team sweeping the three West Coast races since Stewart-Haas Racing with Kevin Harvick in 2018.
Defending Cup champion, Kyle Larson, tallied a runner-up result last Sunday and returns to the site of his most jubilant feat in Cup. However, defending race winner, Martin Truex Jr., is ready for another duel in the desert.
Also, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Kurt Busch, past Phoenix winners, look for some noise this year. In a season where the young racers have excelled so far, these grizzled veterans are like Twisted Sister as they’re not gonna take it anymore from the youth.
Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix may be a great preview not only for the season finale in November, but for other short track, high speed action at Gateway and New Hampshire. At the very least, it’s a significant regular season race as it is one of the first, true test for the Next Gen cars at a smaller racetrack.
This weekend, Ashley Hobbs, Cody Shoppe, Jasmine Sharpe, Kobe Lambeth, Luis Torres, Matt Sisoler, Michelle Raynor, Molly Gastineau, Nathan Solomon, Sean Folsom, Taylor Kitchen and yours truly consider more of Trackhouse Racing’s progress and the potential turnaround time for Denny Hamlin and his No. 11 team!
Podium Preview: Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix Raceway
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Question 1
Can Ross Chastain improve his efforts by two positions at Phoenix? (Photo: Jordan Anders-McClain | The Podium Finish)
Trackhouse Racing and Ross Chastain made some noise with a strong podium finish result at Las Vegas. What can we expect from this bunch heading into Phoenix and Atlanta?
Lambeth : One of the biggest surprises in the last two weeks was Trackhouse being in contention to win at Fontana and Las Vegas. Daniel Suárez got close to getting the job done in California, but couldn’t hold off Kyle Larson at the end. Last weekend in Sin City, Ross Chastain showed us he can dominate a race. As the team continues to improve each week, I expect Trackhouse to run upfront more often and potentially contend for wins. In Phoenix and Atlanta, finishing in the top-15 should be a realistic goal.
Tiongson : This is an organization that’s on the up and up. One of the Next Gen car’s hopeful goals in drawing in new competition among the usual suspects seems to be in bloom like bluebonnets in Texas.
Ross Chastain showcased some of his potential in the second half of last year. Recall how competitive he was in the Southern 500 when he scored a podium, mixing it up with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. He backed up his third with a seventh at Richmond and three top 15 results.
In tandem with Daniel Suárez’s competitive performances and adaptability to these new cars, I think top 10 results for Chastain and Suárez are not out of the question. I don’t expect victories at least until we get to the intermediate track stretch of races in May. Still, Chastain’s no longer a pretender and that’s partly because he’s a raw, talented racer who elevates his team.
Kitchen : Trackhouse Racing’s team might run into issues at Phoenix and Atlanta. Looking at Ross Chastain and Daniel Suárez’s stats in the Cup Series, Suárez is the only team member to collect top 10’s at these tracks.
However, we are talking about a season with a lot of unknowns! It appears team Trackhouse might have found something with the Gen 7 car and their drivers are running with it.
All in all, I am not sure what to expect from Suárez and Chastain the next two weeks. All I can say is that there will most likely be a win coming for Mr. Worldwide in 2022.
Torres : Both races will be telling for Trackhouse Racing. While they’ve had superb runs with both Ross Chastain and Daniel Suárez, it’s usually one over the other. That’s all in large part while one delivers the goods, the other ends up a victim of an incident. Chastain at Fontana and Suárez at Las Vegas.
What’s been admirable is the whole organization being there for each other and that comes a long way. But the next two races are vital to bring both their cars home in one piece. Phoenix shouldn’t be much of an issue as long as tire woes don’t rear its ugly head. Atlanta is the ultimate mystery because it’s not the style of racing they’ve seen at that specific circuit.
It’s being deemed as a superspeedway race, so they must treat it like Daytona and Talladega. They can’t afford to leave there with wrecked cars because they’ve already had issues with cars being damaged. In spite of having superb results, that’s the last thing they really need right now.
Overall, things should only go up for Trackhouse as long as they avoid trouble.
Sharpe : 2022 so far is treating the two car operation decently this season. It was a shame to see Suárez wreck out at Vegas after a stellar finish in Fontana. Yet, this gave Chastain a perfect chance to shine; proving his worth to not only Trackhouse Racing, but to the rest of the field as well.
As long as both cars are able to avoid bad luck, the duo can really make quite a mark in what most feared to be a Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske Racing, and Hendrick Racing dominated season.
With how these Next Gen cars are assembled, it seems to have evened the field out. This may be the break smaller teams like Trackhouse Racing have needed to be able to rise above and snag some wins
Raynor : Trackhouse Racing has been improving every week. I expect Ross Chastain to do well again this week. I feel like it’s still early and they are still figuring out the new car. Daniel Suárez needs a good finish after having bad luck. This week at Phoenix and next week at Atlanta will be telling tracks for Trackhouse.
Question 2
Will Denny Hamlin snap out of his tough start? (Photo: Jordan Anders-McClain | The Podium Finish)
Denny Hamlin’s had a rough start to 2022. Might Phoenix serve as the site of his first season turnaround?
Shoppe : Denny Hamlin said he had the best car last Sunday after his shifting mistake ended his day. While I think that is a bit of a stretch, the No. 11 team has had pretty decent speed this year. I expect a solid top 10 run in Phoenix if the bad luck stays away.
Sisoler : I am not 100% sure if Phoenix is the track that Denny Hamlin turns it around at. Although, given that he’s won here in the past, don’t be surprised if he does something great Sunday given his qualifying run that put him on the outside pole for Sunday.
The NextGen car seems to have caught some teams somewhat off-guard and they seemingly are struggling to adapt, with Hamlin’s 11 team being among that pack, while others have been able to leap ahead of the competition (Hendrick), or at least climb the ladder somewhat (Erik Jones for Petty-GMS along with the Trackhouse cars).
I think Denny Hamlin can fight his way out of the slump he’s had to start the season, he’s got the team, resources and experience in his favor to do so. Time will tell though.
Folsom : It’s hard to really tell because with this new Next Gen car, it seems like everyone is having trouble finding out what the car can and can’t do, except for Hendrick Motorsports. It seems like the last few races, although the tracks have been different, team Hendrick has been doing their math and kind of figured out something that is working out very well for them. I do hope Denny does make a turn around though and figure out something that works for him.
Gastineau : Surprisingly Denny Hamlin has not even been on the list of people I’ve been looking out for. He has had a bumpy start to the season, and I don’t think I see this weekend changing that pattern. In the past, this track has not been his best, and with the new cars, I think that makes the chances of things turning around even less. Another thing with these cars is that you really don’t know what to expect, and maybe that can be a good thing for Hamlin, if things go in his favor that is.
Hobbs : I am going to say no to this because Phoenix Raceway is not one of Hamlin’s best tracks. Hamlin either runs well, or not at all, when they visit this short track. There is also little consistency in this race for him; combine that with inconsistency this year alone, it is going to be hard to align. A silver lining for Hamlin is that he was one of the best overall on short tracks last year, so maybe he can lean on that.
Two laps around Phoenix Raceway flew by as fast the recent jump to Daylight Savings Time! Now, let’s rewind to last Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the third race of 2022, with our race and points reports!
Kyle Larson nearly won again at Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, the points lead battle is quite close heading into Phoenix.
Ashley Hobbs, who recently celebrated her birthday, rings in her new age by Crunching the Numbers: Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix style!
First, consider how your favorite team fares in the Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix Raceway.
Since 2005, the Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix Raceway winner has an average starting spot of 9.4, led an average of 106.6 laps, started within the top five 41.18% of the time and started within the top 10 52.94% of the time.
Quite close among the past three Cup champs.
Here, let’s consider the trends in the past 10 Ruoff Mortgage 500 races at Phoenix since 2012.
Next, let’s consider the trends in the Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix since 2017.
Might the UniFirst ride be first for Chase Elliott?
Next, here’s our top 10 starters for Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix Raceway!
Row 1
Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin (Photo: Luis Torres | The Podium Finish)
Row 2
William Byron and Christopher Bell (Photo: Luis Torres | The Podium Finish)
Row 3
Aric Almirola and Chase Briscoe (Photo: Luis Torres | The Podium Finish)
Row 4
Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski (Photo: Jordan Anders-McClain | The Podium Finish)
Row 5
Alex Bowman and Joey Logano (Photo: Luis Torres | The Podium Finish)
At last, here’s our picks for Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix Raceway!
An elite eight for Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix. (Photo: Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images)
Tiongson : I may not be vying for a victory but a top five or top 10 proves just as nice with these early spring races. Aric Almirola is not fluking into his top 10 finishes this year.
He’s been consistent, smooth and patient while the lot of his competitors have spun or encountered mechanical issues. Almirola placed 11th and sixth at Phoenix last year as well. Look for Double A to continue his top 10 streak on Sunday.
Torres : Defending spring winner Martin Truex Jr. had strong runs at Phoenix last year. While the spring race resulted in a win, he also ended up runner-up in the fall race. Only thing was that didn’t win him the championship. Truex thus far in 2022 has had amazing runs, but no wins to show for. He’ll change that this Sunday based on past successes and being a massive bright spot at JGR when it’s been already an agonizing start to the new campaign.
Lambeth : Hendrick Motorsports might have the momentum on their side entering Phoenix with two consecutive victories, but don’t forget that Joe Gibbs Racing was most likely going to win at Las Vegas without that late race caution. JGR and Toyota figured out the overheating issues from Fontana and bounced back strong last weekend. Expect a JGR driver to visit victory lane in Phoenix with the defending winner of this race, Martin Truex Jr., taking home the checkered flag!
Kitchen : Originally, Martin Truex Jr. was my guy for Phoenix. However, after watching practice and qualifying, I am weary on choosing him for the race weekend. The car that showed the most consistency was the No. 12 of Ryan Blaney. With that said, I hope the 12 team can take that consistency to Sunday and cap off the weekend with the checkered flag in the desert.
Sisoler : It seems like Ryan Blaney and that No. 12 Penske crew have his Mustang dialed in this weekend, being fastest in qualifying to grab the pole for Sunday and, unless I’m mistaken, turning the most laps in Saturday practice with the second-quickest time there as well. If he can keep the car clean and pointed in the correct direction this weekend, expect him to take the checkered flag at the end of Sunday.
Raynor : Ryan has had good cars and runs good here. I think he will win.
Gastineau : Going with Blaney as he did well in qualifying and practice.
TPF Stats : Chase Elliott has been looking for his footing this season – still searching for a top five finish. The numbers points towards not just a top five finish this weekend, but a victory!
Solomon : Elliott is strong at Phoenix and has won a championship there. I feel good about his chances on Sunday.
Hobbs : For no other reason than Kevin Harvick used to dominate this race back in the day, and still kind of does. Phoenix Raceway is a track that can turn things around for Harvick.
Sharpe : After Kyle Busch had a rough week at Vegas, the JGR driver will attempt to rise like the mythical bird that shares the name with this track. He’s craving for a win, and is determined to snag one.
Shoppe : Hendrick Motorsports will sweep the West Coast Swing but with three drivers! William Byron has been quietly strong all year and with his consistent long run speed from practice, he will be joining his teammates Larson and Bowman as winners in 2022!
Folsom : To be honest, just kind of taking a swing here. Joey Logano has been doing pretty well so far this season.
We’re ready for some racing. How about you? What do you think are the biggest storylines heading into the race? Who are your favorites to win? Tweet us now @ThePodiumFinish and tell us now!
Thanks as always to the TPF team for their amazing efforts this week! Stay safe and wash your hands often. Help yourself, your family and friends by getting the COVID-19 vaccine!
The opinions and thoughts expressed in Podium Preview are solely of the authors. They do not reflect any organizations affiliated with the participants and author outside of TPF. This weekly feature is strictly for entertainment purposes. Ultimately, they are not indicative of TPF, the organization and its staff.
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